By: todd

todd — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 17:48:54 +0000

Frank: One problem is that we don’t know what the growth segments are for T-Mobile (which has shown growth compared to, say, Sprint PCS’ subscriber decline). But, here’s my guess. Up until now, T-Mobile’s growth has NOT come from the smartphone crowd, but its subscriber retention HAS come from Starbucks hotspot users. Going forward, however, my guess is that the combination of the iPhone and Starbucks’ switch to AT&T Wireless’ hotspot changes this equation. In other words, my guess is that that basic phone market is at or near saturation while the smartphone market is in a growth cycle propelled by the iPhone’s success. If these assumptions are correct, the prediction is that we should see T-Mobile’s growth halt because basic phone users would stay while new smartphone buyers go elsewhere. T-Mobile data users will probably stay for 2 to 3 years while the Starbucks Hotspot roaming is still in effect. But, their smartphone/notebook hotspot user subscriber base should start shrinking in years 4 and 5 (2011 and 2012) just before the roaming agreement ends. If T-Mobile’s growth shows flattening in the next 4 to 6 quarters, it would be an indication that this prediction will play out as described. T-Mobile has not shown any innovation in the last couple of years except for dropping there combo EDGE/hotspot price to $20/month for voice subscribers. So, they may not have any cards to play except for their non-standard 3G offering later this year. Of course, these are all just guesses. We’ll just have to wait and see how things play out.

By: Frank McPherson

Frank McPherson — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 15:37:08 +0000

But if 3G is available everywhere at a reasonable price, what’s the point of wifi for public access? Even though T-Mo doesn’t have 3G they are growing, which I think shows that price still matters.

Comments on: Is T-Mobile USA Going to Survive? Should Microsoft Help Them Stay Relevant?

By: todd

By: Frank McPherson